Thursday, April 28, 2005

大學選科IT課程遭唾棄

The latest threat for our industry -- we may be running out of new IT students. Our local students and parents are too focused on short-term prospects, and they are not getting the message about the true positive prospects of the IT industry. When the next boom comes, who can come to the party?


大學選科IT課程遭唾棄

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  筆者本周將連續第三個星期,與各位探討一下香港作為知識型經濟的問題。沒錯,是知識型經濟,雖然筆者可能是全香港最後一個對此死不甘心的人。

  二星期前在本欄,我們看到從教育統籌局的招聘政策可見,他們推行的大概是勞動型經濟多於知識型;上周本欄也從青少年沉迷網絡遊戲談起,提到香港缺乏發掘、培育這些青少年的政策,只見危不見機,硬件一概投放給學校,社區資源不足,分配不均。

  這星期,讓我們集中焦點放在一個已經臨到眾大學的問題,這問題若不得正視和改善,三數年後,香港的經濟發展將直接受到影響。這問題就是大學的資訊科技學科的收生不足。

  事實上,自從2000年科網熱潮退卻之後,超級現實的香港學生們,已經宣布放棄與資訊科技有關的科目。一、二年前已經有大學教授說笑,成績只得EE的考生都能考上EE(電機工程系);唉,想當年EE與醫科同是最搶手的、最難考進的,但今天最受歡迎的卻是商科,甚至旅遊!

教學內容淺易了

  例如,某大學的資訊科技學士課程,以前是收生成績列於所有課程中頭三名的,但竟在五年前後跌至尾三之內!以前收生是有選擇的,現在就沒有了,難得有學生「賞面支持」嘛!有教授朋友承認,為了遷就學生的水平,這數年教的內容確實淺易了。

   不過,令人更加憂心的,是情況已從收生成績下降,惡化至收生不足,甚至學位減少。筆者向六所大學的教授友人查問過,發現大部分與資訊科技及電子技術等相 關的學系和主修課程,報讀人數都大為減少,其中有些電子或訊息工程課程根本收不到原定的學額數目,因為大學方面不願意過分降低收生要求。

科目收生不足了

  大學在今天資源短缺情況下,無法不現實地處理!有大學的電子工程、多媒體技術、資訊科技主修生的配額,今年已經下降了1020%,另外亦有些大學的互聯網技術課程則變相取消了;這些問題是大部分大學正面對的;但聽聞也有例外,像些收生較少的電子商貿課程,收生水準反而「逆市」上升,未知是否因為有「商貿」一詞,較適合愛追「目標為本」的香港學生們。

  回看2002年職業訓練局的資訊科技人力資源報告,20023月在港以資訊科技為主要工作的人,數目約六萬三千一百人,以不同的經濟增長率計算,至2006年這數目將增至七萬一千七百八十與八萬零九百之間,每年的新培訓需要是四千五百至五千五百人,其中約一半是需要大學以上水平的。

  在2004年的電子業人力資源報告中,職訓局亦再指在電訊業與資訊、電腦、網絡服務各方面,在20052007年間人力資源所需,仍有穩定的增長,因為經濟復甦表現不錯,職訓局的報告結果還算比原先想像來得準確;當時政府指大學和職訓局的學位已能應付,但大概沒有人會猜想,連肯入讀的學生也收不到!

   其實,今年的資訊科技人力市場,狀況已大為改善,不少大機構在停止請人數年後,開始重新招聘,包括具經驗或新畢業者;據聞某大銀行就招聘新了過百人。這 情況是正常的經濟增長反應,亦反映不少香港的大企業因為業務日趨國際化,發現始終要在香港擴展,不能完全倚靠外判大陸。不少行家和僱主都可證實,今年員工 轉工另謀高就比前多得多了。

選擇學科短炒了

  不過,傳媒只報道酒店請人加薪,過度注意跟風的本地學生、家長們,仍然記得IT泡 沫,卻不知道行業的復甦;讀大學選科是嚴肅的,為的是藉學科開啟終身學習之門,是「長線投資」的一種,豈容以短炒心態處之?二、三年前在資訊科技谷底入學 的同學,將面對的就業市場應該很不錯,而今年「摸頂」入學旅遊科的同學們,反要祝他們好運,且看能否「保熱」至三四年後他們畢業時。

  業界必須立刻正視這問題,尋求與學界和政府共商對策,以防可能快將出現的人才斷層現象。2003年工商科技局曾成立資訊科技人力資源工作小組,進行分析後發現一切安好,但現在情況有變,當局有需要重新作研究,甚至訂出新策略及對外宣傳,以防此斷層出現。


刊載於《信報》2005年4月28日

Monday, April 25, 2005

「打機上癮」危與機

Online game addiction -- how much of a threat is it, and how much can we turn it into an opportunity? It's all relative, and we should reference the success of Korea.

「打機上癮」危與機

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  上周香港基督教服務處發表有關青少年打電腦遊戲的調查報告,訪問了近一千二百名中學生,發現有5.4%受訪者屬「打機上癮」─平均每星期上網打機五點三九日,每日五個半小時;香港的「打機癮君子」,人數可能多達二萬五千人。調查甚至發現,曾玩色情電腦遊戲的六人之中,就會有一人上癮。無可否認,這些發現是令人擔憂的。

家庭內的數碼鴻溝

   指出問題是容易的,但找出解決方法,或者從危境中發掘出機會來,這才是有用的。調查的主辦機構叫政府加強監管網吧,要家長多留意子女,與他們一起用電 腦,甚至發起中小學參與「話停就停行動日」,雖然出發點善良,但流於表面化和例行公事,如果可以這易「話停就停」,問題就不會存在了。

   問題在那裏?就如報道提及某中學舉行攤位遊戲,學生須在指定時間過關取分,最後以禮堂大銀幕打機作獎勵,媒體也稱之為「以毒攻毒」;調查的主辦機構在接 受電台訪問時說,家長不要買太昂貴的電腦給孩子,用來做功課普通裝備已經足夠,這話表面上沒有錯,但事實上錯在始終把電腦和網絡視為負面的,甚至是洪水猛 獸,難道除了所謂做功課之外,沒有正面使用電腦的事?這令家長更加誤解數碼工具,或間接教家長叫子女除了功課什都不要做,恐怕社工又一次好心做壞事。

   聽說,不少孩子喜歡告訴父母,不要碰他們的電腦,因為碰一碰都會壞,家長也信以為真;孩子真的不笨,笨的是信以為真的父母!這個在很多家庭內部的數碼鴻 溝,才真的值得關注。把問題責任推向青少年太容易了,要自以為是的父母、教師、學校承認自己的不足,又談何容易?可惜,如果連有心人都捨難取易,還有什 希望?

   最近,筆者協助一項資助社會服務機構推廣數碼機會的撥款申請作評審,令人失望的,是反應雖然熱烈,但申請的計劃書創意之低,令人震驚,十居其九不是回收 電腦就是開訓練班或搞嘉年華會,例如,若然現在很多網吧並不健康,與其又叫政府加強監管網吧,為何不找年輕人義工自己當「總經理」開設健康網吧,甚至推出 健康性教育網上遊戲?在外國也早有機構搞無酒精、無毒品,只有年輕人沒有黑社會的健康P場,這些點子大概令保守的社福機構因怕「俾阿媽鬧」而卻步?

訊息過分負面

   還有,一方面我們社會上有年輕人打機上癮的問題,但亦有地區機構希望提供免費電腦給貧窮兒童在社區中心借用;社會服務機構缺乏硬件、軟件,學校卻太多, 支援人手和預算也不夠,放學後怕「冇王管」加上保安原因,大多鎖門熄機,這又是政府資源分配上另一個本不應該但仍在天天發生的數碼鴻溝。

   不過,原來調查亦指,屬「未上癮」的青少年,平均每天也上網二點九六小時;筆者反而從正面來看,香港的年輕人非常習慣使用電腦和網絡,應該是個尚待正面 看待和開發的優勢,只可惜,社會上給家長有關資訊科技的訊息,太負面了。雖然香港政府近年大力推動發展數碼娛樂包括電腦遊戲,實仍須正面統一訊息,否則, 難道業界要背負營銷有害物品的惡名,或應只作出口不設內銷?

   除了《大長今》之外,別要忘記南韓還有個領先世界的網絡遊戲產業,在彼邦,訊息和策略就清晰、全面和持續多了,例如,政府把網絡遊戲當作重點文化產業支 持,主動協助發展本地及出口市場,開建「韓國遊戲宣傳中心」,每月(不是長至每年)選出最佳遊戲,以三千萬美元成立遊戲內容資料庫供給業界等。為了推動出 口,政府出錢邀請海外業者、學者甚至研究生到南韓交流,包括來自香港的;南韓大學生也有政府資助到外國如瑞典等交流學習的機會,為期可長達三個月,以擴闊 國際視野。我們能嗎?

社聯下月南韓取經

  香港的網吧是個問題?南韓有數萬個「PC房」網絡遊戲中心,官方政策是鼓勵性的:法例不容許電子遊戲中心開設於學校附近,但PC房反不受此監管;而人所共知,這些PC房和機迷們,是南韓網絡遊戲產業早年成功重要原因,也許亦是代價!南韓電視轉傳網絡遊戲大賽,還有職業網絡遊戲選手巡迴賽,就像網球員、高球手無異,最好的遊戲玩家甚至可免報服兵役,比明星更優待。我們敢嗎?

  筆者相信,南韓的打機上癮問題必比香港嚴重,但其政府的產業支持政策一貫始終,沒有過分監管,但確實設有遊戲檢查制度,而且也有處理打機上癮的「診療所」;香港社聯也將在下月到南韓取經。

  晚晚追韓劇之餘,港人應思想一下,人家成功非僥倖,我們應該有何借鏡之處?有得必有
失,但有成本也必有化成更大得的機會。「打機上癮」這不是個問題,應是個機會!


刊載於《信報》2005年4月21日

Friday, April 22, 2005

Social responsibilities and business ethics: perspectives from IT

I was invited to be a fellow speaker with Dr Albert Erisman, Executive Director of the Institute for Business Technology and Ethics (IBTE), during his visit to Hong Kong and in his series of talks around the city. The talks were organized by Marketplace Consulting Limited with the Hong Kong Baptist University, Chinese University of Hong Kong, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

Dr Erisman worked for Boeing for 32 years, and he was a member of the Boeing CIO council and a Senior Technical Fellows of Boeing in 1990. His present organization, IBTE, is a non-profit corporation to promote good business through appropriate technology and sound ethics.

During his visit, I was privileged to have the opportunity to exchange with Dr Erisman and receive his insights on management, technology and ethics. I also presented to an audidence of businesspersons and professionals on April 22, 2005, on social responsibilities and business ethics with a perspective from the IT sector (download presentation here).

Presentation in HP's solution seminar

I made a keynote presentation for HP's solution seminar. Click here to download my presentation, with the title of "IT Matters for You: Success in Today's Economic Growth." (Large: 3MB)

Thursday, April 14, 2005

令IT人苦笑的招聘電郵

When the education department in Hong Kong tells people you can earn more by becoming a school servant than an IT support guy, what sort of a message is that? What's wrong with our government civil servant system?

令IT人苦笑的招聘電郵

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   近日於本地及海外港人網上流傳一個令我輩資訊科技中人苦笑的真實笑話電郵,題為:「嘩!政府工啊!」重點推介的政府資訊科技職位,是教育統籌局為觀塘官 立中學招聘的資訊科技技術員,入職條件只需完成中五課程,職責是協助進行學校網絡系統維修、技術支援、軟硬件記錄管理,和協助準備資訊科技教材,月薪五千 大元!

   不過,該電郵「教路」,其實另外還有兩份教統局的「好工」─伊利沙伯中學的雜工,職責包括清潔、油印、外勤及搬運家具等;何東中學也有一個雜工的空缺, 負責如上述的工作之外,更要打理花園;這兩份工作,入職資格只要小學程度,工資每月六千三百三十元;與資訊科技技術員職位相比之下,實令人哭笑不得,難道 這是因為教統局用心良苦,特別照顧和鼓勵雙失青年?

  首先聲明,以上三個空缺都是如假包換的,諸君可到政府職位空缺查詢系統查看,不過在截止申請日期(分別為本周一、周四及周五)之後就可能會被抽起了。那個電郵的結語說:「如果你有兒子說,志願是做IT,你應該高興,他真的擁有高尚情操。」

何不提高入職要求?

   其實,五千元月薪對中學畢業生來說,大概已不算很低,小學程度雜工六千多元月薪,也未必是太高,但把三份工放在一起,尤其是來自負責教育和人力統籌的政 策局,就顯得有些不妥,更由於工作是在前線中學的,就更令人不禁地問,這向學生發放的是什訊息;教統局是否要用行動表示,香港要的是勞動型經濟,而非知 識型經濟?「搬搬抬抬」的增值與創富能力,比「食腦」更好,若教統局招聘時都以小學畢業優於中學畢業,教統局轄下的老師們,以後怎樣叫學生勤力讀書,至少 都要中學畢業?

   筆者不是要貶低校工的貢獻,但我依然認為,資訊科技支援工作對教育學生必定比種花、清潔等對培育我們的下一代更重要。也許,另一個應該問的問題是,為什 資訊科技技術員只聘用中學畢業生,他們又是否有足夠的能力和成熟度,尤其是在協助準備教材方面?即使大學生可能條件過高,為什不以預科、副學士等畢業 程度為要求?如果連教統局自己都找不到適合聘請副學士的職位,那又何必當初?合理估計的原因很簡單,可能更只有一個:將貨就價。

  唉,香港的公務員制(包括非公務員合約聘用者亦然),太高的不能減,對新興所需職位就只嘆一句「錢不夠」;再者,學校雜工人數必比資訊科技技術員多,工會牙力也必較硬。

有自由行就萬事足

   筆者常感嘆,香港政府對知識型經濟已經久久不提了,有了自由行就萬事足。請校工的薪金比資訊科技技術員要高,別以為是小事一樁,令人痛心的,是這實是有 如教統局對有心和盡努力發展香港的知識資本的人,像父親給兒子送了一記耳光,而一個這樣「富娛樂性」的電郵傳流各地,才是香港真正的國際笑話。  

刊載於《信報》2005年4月14日

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

購併基金改變硅谷企業生態

The SunGard acquisition may signal a wave of buyout in the tech investment market in the US. [From The Sun, Apr 11, 2005]

http://www.the-sun.com.hk/channels/fina/20050411/20050411011400_0002.html

Monday, April 11, 2005

Computerworld Hong Kong: SMEs make up 98% of HK firms -- wired or not?

I was quoted in this article....

http://www.cw.com.hk/computerworldhk/article/articleDetail.jsp?id=153873

Ninety-eight percent

Computerworld Hong Kong

Despite its flagship property developers and iconic bank buildings, Hong Kong's business climate is dominated by SMEs. Small and medium enterprises (defined by the Hong Kong Productivity Council as firms with less than 50 employees for non-manufacturers) make up 98 percent of Hong Kong firms. These enterprises-from Mongkok noodle shops to small publishing groups in Quarry Bay-are the heart, soul and spine of Hong Kong business.

But how IT-savvy is a typical Hong Kong SME? Are they evaluating the merits of competing SCM and CRM products? Or are they simply jamming another roll of thin waxy paper into their dust-covered fax machines?

"One of the characteristics of Hong Kong SMEs is their vulnerability," said Sin Chung Kai, Hong Kong's legislative councillor for IT. "Some turn out to be successful. Some vanish."

HK SMEs: wired or not?

According to Sin, a 2004 Hong Kong government survey on IT usage and penetration in the business sector showed that while 50 percent of businesses had an Internet connection, the adoption level of e-business was even lower. "For example," said Sin, "only 12 percent had ordered or purchased goods/services via electronic means and 1.3 percent had sold goods/services via electronic means."

Sin added that about eight percent of businesses had used wireless and mobile devices, suggesting that the government needed to "step up its efforts in promoting IT, such as wireless technology and applications to SMEs."

"We have the Trade Development Council to help market development, while the Productivity Council [is] helping SMEs with productivity," said Sin. "But I also think the government should do more in helping SMEs to deploy IT to streamline their businesses."

Hot tech

"I believe the key technology issue for SMEs is not 'what's the hottest technology?', but whether they use or emphasize the use of technology at all," said Charles Mok, former president and ex-officio member of the HK Information Technology Federation (HKITF). "Local SMEs do tend to be more 'short-sighted'-you could say that there are relatively few 'must-use' incentives for them as far as using IT is concerned," said Mok. "However, many of them are now beginning to face a situation where they are becoming not as competitive as they should be, or need to be, in the changing marketplace."

Mok added that "one of the HKITF's projects in recent years has been to assist SMEs in the travel sector to better understand the issues preventing them from further IT adoption."

Hong Kong ranked third

"Compared to some of the other countries in the Asia/Pacific region, Hong Kong is more technologically mature," said Lau Tong Yen, senior analyst, Asia/Pacific SMB Research for research firm IDC. She said exposure to new technology helps distinguish Hong Kong SMEs from other regional ventures (IDC prefers the identical term "SMB" and uses a different metric: any HK firm with fewer than 500 employees qualifies).

"After implementing the necessary infrastructure, SMBs tend to look for solutions to help them to simplify their operations and processes," said Lau. "Such solutions will be mostly in software (ERM, CRM, BI) and services such as outsourcing."

"SMBs require solutions that cater to their specific needs and requirements based on industry [and] company size as well as their current level of technology adoption," said Lau. "Every single SMB has their own unique characteristics."

Lau ranked HKSAR SMEs third in terms of computerization within Asia/Pacific, slightly behind Australia and Singapore. "However," noted Lau, "some SMBs (especially the smaller-sized ones) need to seriously consider how they can use technology to further boost their productivity."

Support

"GCIO? What GCIO?," declared Bryan Wong, senior software engineer for Alltronics Tech Manufacturing. "Frankly I don't know much about the GCIO and what [he] is doing to help HK SMEs."

Wong, who heads the IT department of Alltronics (an electronics manufacturing company with production plants in Shenzhen), was speaking generally about the Hong Kong's government role-or lack of it-in helping support his SME's IT efforts. "Up until today we have received zero assistance from the government in the area of IT," said Wong.

Wong had specific suggestions. "The most flexible way to help SMEs better utilize IT is to provide funding for training," he said. Wong acknowledged that the existing SME fund provides reimbursement for training but said it isn't IT-friendly: "The existing scheme a wide range of subjects and has a fairly small cap per organization."

"The typical SME IT shop is a small operation of several staff-in our case two in Hong Kong, four in China," explained Wong. "However, that doesn't mean that we face fewer issues than that of any large organization. Out of the two or three IT HK staff, there has to be a network engineer, system administrator, desktop support specialist, info security specialist, project lead, system analyst, software engineer, etc-basically these people have to possess a broad set of skills to be able to manage the IT operation."

How then do IT managers at HK SMEs cope with technical problems? "Support mostly comes from vendors," said Wong. But this type of support is limited. "We purchase a service from a vendor for an actual need," he said. "For example, we spend HK$30,000 a month for a couple of leased lines, so if we report problems related to the stability of those lines, the vendor will help. And as these support people are technically savvy, if I have a question about Linux or a firewall or VoIP, I may ask those types of questions while I have them on the line."

This sort of ad hoc approach has its limitations. "If it's a simple question, they may be give you a quick answer and won't charge you," said Wong, "but that's a favor. Anything more means you'll probably have to make a formal support arrangement."

"Other than that, it's basically [researching problems via] the World Wide Web, and good luck with finding the info you need," he said. "Whatever we do, we do it on our own or with the assistance of a systems integrator or software vendor."

Mentorship

Wong also suggested the implementation of a mentorship scheme. "Within a large organization, project managers or senior managers serve as mentors," he said. "To provide the same opportunity for people in small IT shops, a program that matches mentors with mentees would be ideal."

"Those of us who work in Hong Kong SMEs need support-someone to call," urged Wong. "The boss gives you one task, and you go figure it out-you go out on your 'adventure'. But I think it's helpful to find time to plan, figure out IT policies...most of the time we sit in the office dealing with daily chores and don't have time to look at new technologies."

Wong added that an annual conference of CIOs and IT managers-a knowledge-sharing summit-would be a great asset for the hardworking tech-managers who keep Hong Kong SMEs vibrant.

Vendor support

Lau from IDC said that "limited budgets have always remained a top concern for [Hong Kong] SMBs." Bottom lines are critical, but vendors argue that factors other than cost also come into play.

"[Hong Kong's] SMBs are characterized by lean staff resources, cost sensitivity, lack of IT knowledge and support, and strong focus on short-term results and delivery," said Raymond Choi, sales and marketing director, commercial accounts and SMB, HP Hong Kong.

"The challenge for Hong Kong SMEs comes when business is picking up and they want to be able to grow, but may not able to invest in a solution," said Lee Boon Lee, COO, SAP North Asia and president, SAP Hong Kong & Taiwan. "Price is important, but having a roadmap is important as well."

"As Hong Kong's business community is very diverse-spanning everything from family-owned Chinese enterprises to the branch offices of multinationals-SMEs are advised to keep a close eye on the latest industry trends," said Arics Poon, managing director, Oracle South China and Hong Kong.

"We understand that the issue of IT adoption among Hong Kong SMEs is not mainly a cost issue, but a lack of management expertise and IT skills," said Patrick Poon, executive, global mid-market business, IBM China/Hong Kong. "[The] SME market is an important strategy for us and we are committed to partnering with them."

IBM's Poon said his firm believed "the majority of HK enterprises are SMEs who are exploring some forms of transformation for sustaining business success," adding that "our key focus this year is to help SMEs reap growth opportunities through a series of initiatives including aggressive educational and marketing programs [and] tailored services and solutions."

One of IBM's cost strategies, according to Poon, is to offer "flexible financing terms that eliminate the upfront cost of IT system deployment." And the IBM executive pledged that his firm would conduct a research study who findings would results in "an advocacy program to engage the government, industry associations, trade bodies and other stakeholders to work together to support SMEs to innovate and grow as part of China."

Cross-border strategies

"Many SMBs in Hong Kong may be simple service offices that need to communicate and collaborate with larger manufacturing bases on the mainland," said HP's Choi, meaning that "software, hardware and services that enable workers/partners located in Hong Kong and China to work together on the same project effectively is very important." Choi added that his firm offers "end-to-end solutions that package hardware, software and services to meet customized needs" and further offers consulting services for Hong Kong's SMEs.

"With many SMEs having mainland operations they should also consider more closely integrating their IT systems in HK and China," declared Oracle's Poon. "An Internet-based IT infrastructure with fully automated functions and single integrated database can help enterprises significantly lower their operational costs and make more informed business decisions."

Join the club

Choi added that his firm hosts an "SMB Club, within which [SMEs] can share experiences, learn from each other, and find support, business partners and clients," declaring that "the enthusiastic response to the HP SMB club is an excellent indication of general IT receptiveness among local SMBs. Choi insisted that there are "many local SMBs making use of IT to boost their bottom-line/productivity" and said that HP publishes reference cases each month at http://www.hp.com.hk/smb/success.

Choi said that while the government currently offers a "slew of financial assistance schemes to SMBs, they need to devote more resources to educating SMBs to understand how IT can integrate and assist their business." Choi suggested the government consider "regular seminars and workshops that deliver detailed case studies of SMBs that have successfully adopted IT in their business; comprehensive how-to sessions that cover different aspects of IT deployment such as security and hardware selection; and financing arrangements that maximize value and delivery."

Investment decisions

"Limited budgets are a key constraint on many Hong Kong SMEs," said Oracle's Poon, adding that "lack of expertise and unforeseeable investment returns can hinder their investment decisions." Poon recommended that SMEs "identify a trustworthy IT partner that can provide a wide range of services, support and training to meet their practical needs," and said that "the emergence of Linux and open source software can also provide a much wider choice for SMEs, allowing them to choose low-cost commodity hardware which can lower their investment costs and minimize the risks involved in new IT implementations."

"Supply chain management, financial management, collaboration and communication applications are the key enterprise solutions being embraced by local SMEs," said Poon. "To ensure better results," concluded Poon, "HK SMEs could conduct periodic reviews on the performance of their IT infrastructure."

Sophistication through integration

Lee said that 60 percent of SAP's current global revenue comes from SMEs. As far as the Hong Kong variety: "The majority have what we call infrastructure investments, but are not sophisticated in using an integrated solution. Many use piecemeal solutions, such as simple accounting systems. Excel-for a lot of people, that's their CRM."

Lee lauded what he termed the "control and accountability of an integrated system," adding that his firm's strengths are "business applications and integration. Integrated applications cause users to be more alert and focus more on the business-get them thinking how to structure their reports. The owner of the biz has a better feel for accountability-that's one of the intangible factors, along with the branding.

When approaching a Hong Kong SME, said Lee, "the customer always tells us they are a very small company, so price is a critical criterion. Also, speed of deployment is essential, so long training periods are out of the question."

The SAP chief said that his firm's branding was important to their Hong Kong customers. "We've been in business a long time, and we give them [Hong Kong SME customers] a roadmap so they can start small but have a clear path to follow."

"We aim to see our SME business grow three- to four-fold over the next 12-18 months," said Lee.

Thursday, April 07, 2005

開放原碼優勢日見減弱

There are signs that the cost of open source software is not as advertised, and statistics showing that Linux adoption is losing steam among multiple tiers of user organizations. The truth is possibly that open source is just not most suited for the operating systems level, at least for now.

開放原碼優勢日見減弱

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

  近年,開放原碼軟件(Open Source Software)可算取得不少風頭,尤其是Linux操作系統,除了大量企業用作取代其他以特許(license)形式授權使用的商業收費軟件之外,不少國家的政府更定出明確政策支持開發和運作開放原碼軟件系統。

   在香港,雖然我們缺乏具體的開放原碼軟件使用情況的數據;不過,從香港一些開放原碼軟件行業組織的網上資料,可以清楚看到開放原碼系統對企業和用戶所提 出的價值建議,除了指出這些軟件屬免費之外,其用戶更「往往可發現這操作系統令人印象深刻的強處,特別在多用戶、多任務下的可靠性、表現、可提升性及安 全」,所以能為使用者帶來更高的生產力、較低廉的總擁有成本,以及更長的產品壽命周期等等-有利的結果。

  然而,常言道,魔鬼是在細節之中,開放原碼在現在是否真能把以上的「支票」兌現?我們可嘗試從北美近期的一些市場研究先作了解。  美國楊基集團(Yankee Group)剛發表的一份獨立報告指出,大部分美國公司都認為擁有及維護微軟視窗與Linux系統作企業電腦環境的成本,以開發應用和處理保安所需時間及資源計算,兩者事實上無顯著分別,其結論是開發和維護應用的成本,並不基於核心操作系統的選擇,多數企業根本沒有深入分析成本來源。

  一千七百名受訪者中,88%認為微軟視窗的質量、表現和可靠性,至少與Linux一樣或更優勝,當然,這可能是市場上無可否認地有較多用戶相對習慣和認識視窗所致;另外,絕少企業會從一個平台全盤地完全轉到另外的一個,反而大部分都兩者兼用。

  微軟視窗系統的安全性,一直令人詬病,但這次的研究就顯示在受訪者心目中,微軟的表現比Linux已追近了一些,以總分十分計,其安全性得分是七點六,只比Linux的八點三分稍稍落後;當然,有另一派人士則以為,隨Linux系統普及,樹大也必更招風,結果無疑「他朝君體也相同」而已。雖然在有意轉換系統的企業中,大多都以對微軟系統的安全性為原因,但大多數的企業都表示對現有環境滿意。

中型企業認同Linux程度下降

  有意採用Linux的用戶就以轉換平台成本、與現有系統的兼容性、和應用軟件不足為他們面對的主要障礙。另一個較有趣的結論,是雖然多數未具Linux平台經驗的人都以為Linux較適合開發和應用系統經驗深的人,但那批經驗深的人反而傾向選用商業軟件平台,主要是由於他們善於開發較複雜的應用,而開放原碼操作系統卻不具備這些功能的部分;所以,該研究忠告用家,絕不能只因「支持」開放原碼,或憎厭微軟,就草率決定轉向。

  從以上的結果看來,如果「高級」用戶認為Linux仍有點不足,說開放原碼系統適合中小企業,應可成立,但事實上加拿大的ITRG一項調查一千四百多家英美加中型企業的研究發現,Linux反而在中型企業中失勢;其中,只有27%有使用Linux,其他完全沒有用Linux的公司中,近50%對開放原碼操作系統不感興趣,只有10%說在未來三個月內可能看一看。ITRG甚至下結論說,用戶對Linux的興趣正在遞減。在企業投放於資訊科技方面的預算有限情況下,如果要轉換操作系統,即是在系統以至人力都要投資,故根本沒有機會和可能,難怪研究更發現在管理層當中,普遍對Linux信心不足。

  Linux是否真的適合中小企業採用,抑或只不過被用為拿張免費或平價的特許證,作為萬一被查時報數之用?

政府支持非單純技術因素

  在各政府層面,對開放原碼的支持,亦以政治或貿易原因為主,例如希望重要系統使用本土開發軟件,或利用此政策向商業軟件公司施壓,令他們肯向政府分享多些原碼資料和降低價錢。至於通常直接的中短期效益或成本,則不足成為採用Linux的主因。

  筆者其實是非常支持開放原碼軟件的,因為多些競爭總是好的,對技術發展和用家效益皆然,但現實上在操作系統層面上,不少統計和分析都發現,至今開放原碼的相對優勢有限;相信,開放原碼軟件的優勢,在某些應用範圍內,潛力可會更大。

刊載於《信報》2005年4月7日

Friday, April 01, 2005

Yahoo 10年新挑戰

Yahoo 10年新挑戰

雅虎(Yahoo!)十歲了!十年時光以企業生命而言,未必算是很長,但對以「互聯網時間」速度計算的科網世界,十年卻絕對不短了。而去年在納斯特克市場上市的Google,在很多地方表面上都似是雅虎的翻版,但細看之下自可見到兩者不同之處。雖然兩者都是從搜尋(search)服務開始,但走的路其實並不盡相同,結果兩家將會是很不同的公司。

在1995年3月2日雅虎正式成立為公司,之前,兩位創辦人當時26的揚致遠(Jerry Yang)和28歲的David Filo,是史丹福大學的電子工程研究生,在萬維網初生之時,兩人為了方便紀綠自己愛好的網址,在學校的電腦內設計了一個目錄式網頁,名為「Jerry的萬維網指南」(“Jerry’s Guide to the World-Wide Web”),不過,除了為「興趣」,二人也努力研究又何把興趣變為賺錢的生意,結果,他們成功了。今天,雅虎已經從原先以網上搜尋和接受網上廣告為主的生意模式,發展為包羅網上電郵、即時訊息(instant messaging)、新聞天氣、揾工、徵友、電子商貿、遊戲等的綜合服務。

而Google則由另外兩位史丹福大學的電腦科學系研究生Larry PageSergey Brin(當時25歲)於1998年創立,相比雅虎以內容為主的定位,Google卻自行開發全世界最大的搜尋引擎,與楊和Filo二人情況不同的是,Page和Brin二人用作創業的技術,是與他們的學術研究相關的,論文仍可在網上找到。至今,Google每天為用戶執行超過2億個搜尋查詢。

反觀雅虎卻一直倚靠他人的搜尋技術,從早年由廸吉多電腦(後為康柏收購)的Alta Vista,至後來收購搜尋器公司Inktomi,甚至雅虎曾經向Google投資一千萬美元,並曾經採用其搜尋技術。至上季業積收入比較,Google的10.32億美元,僅低於雅虎的10.78億美元。

雅虎與Google是屬於幸運的,他們基本上在公司成立之前,就已經得到了巨額資金。雅虎在1995年4月就拿到了「名牌VC」Sequoia Capital的二百萬美元,Google在1998年6月也同樣得到Sequoia等的二千五百萬美元投資;另一點相同之處,是兩家公司在集資後都聘請了「成年人」來當行政總裁,創辦的年青人就退居幕後。

雅虎在成立一年後就在納斯特克市場上市,但Google就等了六年,這不單是因為Google沒趕上在網絡熱潮爆破前上車,更重要的是雅虎的確在較短時間內達至盈利,事實上,雅虎就真的在成立十個月之後就賺錢了。Google相對就要較長的時間才達到盈利,主要是因為他們從頭開始就決定不接受標題廣告(banner ads),不過,當他們創出以廣告詞語(AdWords)收費後,清況就幾乎立刻扭轉過來。

而2000年網股爆破,則令雅虎一年內後入少了三分之一,全年盈利首次見紅,股價也由高點的$400多美元,蒸發了九成五有多。科技背景行政總裁Tim Koogle黯然辭職,由傳媒背景的Terry Semel上任,雅虎的轉型其實已經靜靜地開始了。不過,為了鞏固盈利,和預備與Google的競爭,Semel先於2003年以17億美元收購Google的直接對手Overture,改名為Yahoo! Search Technology,成功地把公司總收入由2003年的16億美元增長至2004年的36億美元。

現在,Semel為雅虎主力發展的新業務,是在南加州聖達蒙尼卡成立的互聯網節目內容製作部門,目標在於把視像內容直接由互聯網傳達至用戶的電視機、硬盤式錄像機,甚至手機上。明顯地,Semel為雅虎定立的新方向,是成為最主要的綜合媒體和內容提供者,把新部門成立於南加州,正意味著雅虎要向荷李活進軍。

相對地,Google的發展仍然是以技術為核心,從最快速和最準確的搜尋引擎,發展到建基於搜尋技術的以重要詞(keyword)搜尋為原理的廣告詞語,最大容量的免費電郵服務Gmail,以至現在正密謀開發的瀏覽器技術,看來,Google虎視眈眈的,正是老大哥微軟在基礎技術的領導地址。

兩家同以搜尋服務起家的企業,如今以不同的定位績戰江湖,將誰勝誰敗?Google以自己研發和擁有的技術,推動應用和製造市場及盈利模式;而雅虎則繼續利用品牌效應,集中發展多元化服務以求增加收費和獲利機會;不過,雖然Google花在營銷和推廣的成本比雅虎為少,其卓越的搜尋技術已經令其品牌人所共知,比雅虎有過之而無不及,例如,google已可在英語解「作網上搜尋」的動詞,但yahoo就不能了,所以,Google在品牌上反有更大的發揮空間。

在比較雙方未來發展目標而言,雅虎投資於自行製作或發行視像內容是極為高成本及高風險的,雖然Google要挑戰微軟也不見得容易,但集中研發技術產品,始終較有把握。反而,Google要面對最大的挑戰,是如何在高速增長下在效地管理企業內外部問題,這些在某程度上反而是雅虎經已過渡了的。

兩家企業發展策略雖有不同,但始終是爭取相同的用戶群,所以,未來的競爭形勢仍會連場好戲。未知2008年Google十歲的時候,故事發展將會如何?

網址:- 「雅虎網絡回顧展」(Yahoo! Netrospective, birthday.yahoo.com):promo.yahoo.com/birthday10/incorporation
- 早期雅虎网頁:http://promo.yahoo.com/birthday10/incorporation/
- 1995年雅虎創辦人的訪問:http://www.sun.com/950523/yahoostory.html
**Google創辦人1998年的技術論文:http://www-db.stanford.edu/~backrub/google.html

註: Yahoo的字典意義,一是「粗鄙的人」,二是格列佛遊記(小人國歷險記)中的人形獸的名字,楊致遠十年後仍笑說:「我們當年確實既不世故,又沒甚麼文化。」
Google是googol一字的俗寫,意思是10100,象徵其建造極大形搜尋器的目標。

刊載於《CUP》2005年4月第39期

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