百度之後 何以為繼？
The long anticipated IPO of Baidu cumulated up in a spectacular outburst of a 354% rise. It's all a matter to timing of the market, especially that the US doesn't offer any other more attractive alternatives. And, it helps to be labelled as China's Google, of course.百度之後 何以為繼？
百度上周五晚終在納斯特市場上市了，香港時間周五晚筆者就寢時，百度股價已由上市價二十七元（美元．下同）上升近倍，一覺醒來，原來百度竟然在首日上市勁升至三倍半有餘，當日內最高更曾急升四倍，成為納市自2000年來，股份首日上市升幅最高的紀錄。
科網熱潮，重現人間？一家上季度收入只有約八百萬元的「外國」公司，竟然可以令美國及全球投資者瘋狂，把這公司的市值推高超過四十億元，所為何由？
上市的一刻，百度的總市值接近九億元，是淨收入的四十二倍，當日最高更曾升逾四倍！相對之下，雅虎與Google股價都只是其淨收入約十九倍。
最簡單地解釋原因，就是Google效應。百度什別的都不做，只做搜尋器，你認為Google值錢，百度就是中國版本，其他什都不用多講。嘩，這不是dotcom重現江湖？
Google效應
就像雅虎是Google上市前的投資者一樣，Google也是百度的股東之一，之前更曾傳出Google要收購百度的消息，更是引人入勝。
其實，百度股價所以能在首日暴漲至此，原因之一為集資的規模較細，只有四百多萬股，集資額僅一億九千多萬元。不過，百度的盈利和規模都比Google上市時小得多，雖然它在中國的市場佔有率比較高。
與Google上市日情況比較，時值2004年8月，Google每股八十五元好像真有點貴，但不足一年已升至超過三百元，數字上這都令人覺得百度定價「合理」，投資者豈不爭先恐後地要博一博？
原因之二，是在美國本土之內，真的找不到這種刺激，再加上「中國熱」，而且安全又具概念誘惑的，始終，中國在美上市的網絡股公司如網易及程等，大部分都保持穩定健康的增長。美國本土的下一個上市真命天子，都未必能達到這樣的吹捧層次。
雅虎估計，全球網上廣告年增長34%，品牌廣告年增長23%，搜尋式的關鍵詞廣告則更有50%增加，這些預期已經蠻不錯，但相對有估計而又不難相信，中國的搜尋式廣告將增長四倍達到近七億元之數，而百度由2002年至預計2006年每年過倍增長率，盈利又高近收入的40%，實不難理解外國基金何以對它趨之若鶩。
百度值不值得這種市值？實在無法理性判斷，這本身就是市場定律的一部分，總之，一個高增長的市場缺乏選擇，就難免有點不理性亢奮。但百度現象令人更明顯看見，比之前盛大等中國網絡公司成功在美上市更清楚證實的，是中國的經濟實力。
即使美國等國家政府或政黨可用政治手法阻礙中國企業企圖買入歐美的資產，但若然資本市場仍然是開放的，歐美投資者的錢和利益關注，只會繼續流向中國，結果是，他們能容許中國「感冒」嗎？
加速香港邊緣化
不過，在另一角度分析，其他亞洲地區，甚至香港及台灣，都沒有受惠，因為無得「一齊玩」。與中國內地算有較特殊關係的香港，有什對策，能好好把握時機？
內地至今的成功例子，都仍是「中國版本」為主，除了如盛大這類網股之外，大多都不算有很高度創新，倚賴的只是中國市場夠大，而在盛大、百度之後，也沒有明顯的下一個同等級數或素質的網絡企業。若然我們仍能假設香港有些人和企業擁有好的創意和國際視野，但缺乏市場規模和進入內地市場的技巧和資金，而本地和海外的資金又只願意投向內地，這個隔縫必要被打通，否則，中國的發展愈成功，反而加速香港的被邊緣化，那就不妙了。
刊載於《信報》2005年8月8日
posted by Charles Mok @ 7:47 PM
1 Comments:
Big News From The Healthcare Industry!!
+++++++++++Current Profile+++++++++++
Faceprint Global Solutions (FCPG)
Current Price $0.15
A company with hot new identity solution products
and licenses with over 40 current governmental and
non-governmental contracts in negotiations.
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BREAKING NEWS!!
Faceprint Global Solutions (FCPG) is pleased to announce that its European partner, Keyvelop, has teamed up with IBM's Partner World Industry Networks to deliver customer software requirement solutions for the international healthcare industry.
With FGS owning the exclusive North American rights to distribute the worlds leading encryption and transmission software developed by Keyvelop, FGS is poised to capture large volumes of sales generated by customers currently using IBM's software in the healthcare and other industries.
With traceability and security now deemed a serious business priority, companies are increasingly focused on employing procedures and controls designed to ensure the authenticity, integrity and confidentiality of electronic records.
"This is a very positive move for FGS and for Keyvelop," said FGS CEO Pierre Cote. "We are very happy about the decision to go with IBM. This is a continuation of the progress made by everyone associated with FGS and its partners."
Buell Duncan, IBM's general manager of ISV & Developer Relations commented, "Collaborating with Keyvelop will ensure that we develop open solutions that are easy to maintain and cost effective for our customers in the healthcare and life sciences industry."
Among other things, this new software technology which is currently being used by a number of European healthcare companies, is used to send any file, regardless of format or size. Encryption keys, evidence of transmission integrity with fingerprint calculation, time-stamping of all actions and status record updating, pre-checking sender and receiver identities, validating file opening dates are part of Keyvelop features.
About FacePrint Global Solutions, Inc.
FGS operates a business, which develops and delivers a variety of technology solutions, including biometric software applications on smart cards and other support mediums (apometric solutions). FGS's products provide biometric solutions for identity authentication and a host of smart card- and biometrics-related hardware peripherals and software applications. Apometrix, FGS's wholly-owned subsidiary, combines on-card or in-chip multi-application management solutions with best-of-breed 'in-card matching' biometrics. Keyvelop's secure digital envelope solution and Apometrix's on-card biometrics work together to produce the winning combination in the fields of security, traceability and identity management. FGS is headquartered in Fresno, California.
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