2011: we were warned...about IPv6
http://www.cw.com.hk/content/2011-we-were-warnedabout-ipv6
2011: we were warned...about IPv6
For years we’ve been told that IPv4—the present Internet protocol standard—would be running out soon, and when IPv6 takes over, there will be enough IP addresses to go around for every sand particle on the earth’s surface. That sounds wonderful, but nobody seems to truly understand that IPv4 addresses are running out.
Even now, when the Number Resource Organization (NRO)—the official representative of the five Regional Internet Registries (RIRs) that oversee the allocation of Internet number resources—recently announced that less than 10% of available IPv4 addresses remain unallocated, businesses still don’t seem to care. Companies that depend on the Internet for their business seem oblivious, as do ISPs who provide Net access for their clients.
Train wreck dead ahead
Why is this? For one thing, IPv6 is not your traditional “upgrade” with immediately beneficial features. The upgrade will improve things like multicasts and router processing, but the Internet won’t run significantly faster over IPv6 than it does IPv4. Also, there aren’t enough trained IPv6 network engineers around, so companies will have human-resource problems implementing the upgrade. Why not simply wait?
The inconvenient truth is that the longer we wait, the more costly it will be once we eventually have to switch.
“We’ve reached a critical low water mark for IP addresses,” said Geoff Huston, chief scientist for the Asia Pacific Network Information Centre (APNIC) and global expert on IP address usage. “Out of the original 4.5 billion [IP] addresses, less than 400 million remain. This is simply not enough to fuel further Internet growth. Consider how many new Internet compatible mobile phones were connected during 2009 in Asia-Pacific alone.”
The IP addresses run out WHEN?
While APNIC will continue to allocate IPv4 addresses to the industry, it anticipates that the central world-wide pool will run out during late 2011. Asia-Pacific ISPs will only be able to get IPv4 address for a few months after that, until APNIC’s pool depletes. Last month, APNIC issued a warning to the Internet community in Asia about this curiously little-known upcoming threat: that organizations relying on the Internet to conduct business have only a limited time to act and adapt to changing technology. It is anticipated that for some years to come, businesses will continue to run IPv4 and IPv6 simultaneously over dual-stacking.
Paul Wilson, director general of APNIC, warns, “Without planning and risk assessment, IPv4 exhaustion poses a tangible threat to the long-term growth and innovation of virtually all organizations in the region.” And due to the rapid growth of the Internet in Asia, the situation here is even more dire. Of the 190.1 million IPv4 addresses allocated during 2009, 45.87% were in the Asia Pacific region, with China consuming more IPv4 addresses than any other country.
Is Hong Kong ready? Probably not. Only one local ISP provides IPv6 support to its customers. Others cite lack of demand—a classic chicken-and-egg dilemma. But fortunately the OGICIO has taken the lead in supporting IPv6 in the Government Backbone Network (GNET), enabling the government’s domain name and web hosting services to support IPv6, so that all gov.hk domains and over 200 government websites can be resolved and accessed respectively through IPv6.
IPv6 adoption is one of the key priorities and initiatives of the global Internet Society, and locally Internet Society Hong Kong (ISOC-HK) has organized two well attended forums for international experts to share experience with the local network engineering community, including one on security issues arising from IPv6 deployment on February 23 to an overflow audience. A Working Group has been formed under ISOC-HK to coordinate future training and promotional activities. On April 13-14, INET Asia (the Asia conference of ISOC) will organize another sharing session with developers around Asia to report on regional progress—subjects will include domain name business, security & privacy, and IPv6.
Published on Computerworld Hong Kong on March 9 2010
不滿足於做最不醜的小鴨
「…利用互聯網平台及 Web 2.0 技術，改善政府與市民的關係和管治效率，提高施政的透明度，才是新一代電子政務的核心理念，但技術只不過是工具，開放思維、放膽溝通更重要。」
推特友（Twitter-ers）
Jansen 和
Jason 早前發現了，一個設計網站中的「終極醜陋政府網站博覽」，其中對香港政府網站（
www.gov.hk）的評語是「比起很多其他網站還算好」，他們就在 Twitter 告訴了
政府資訊科技總監葛輝（@HKGCIO）。不久葛輝便在他的
網誌回應：「我們不滿足於做最不醜的小鴨，我們要做漂亮的天鵝！」，還乘機介紹了將於本月面世，外觀改善不少的政府網站新版面，專為流動用戶設計的輕裝網站，以及在秋季將會推出的 MyGovHK（我的香港政府）個人化網頁。
筆者以前也曾在此欄提過，葛輝是少數直接在網上與市民溝通的官員，而且保證如假包換，真人親身上陣，他也善於利用網誌和 Twitter 提高政策透明度，用作透露未出籠也未正式宣布的政府計劃，拉近與市民距離。新的政府網站設計及 MyGovHK 概念，當局去年也曾與筆者分享過，筆者覺得設計好固然是美事，但互動功能更是重要，市民個人戶口更是重要。
其實，在兩年多前，筆者與民間智庫
公共專業聯盟已在
《電子政府與良好管治》報告書中，建議參考如新加坡政府
「SingPass」的單一戶口，提供「一站式」、「單一戶口」服務，我們甚至設計了個人化香港政府網頁的概念版，每個市民或機構都可登記成為用戶，在政府入門網站用單一帳戶登入，使用綜合政府服務，不用理會哪個部門管轄，「一站式」地處理所有網上投訴、申報、申請、登記、更新、查詢、付款、預約及提交電子表格。敏感的服務如交稅等，則可利用數碼證書作為雙重認證，統一和簡化了安全管理。
我們的概念版介面更模擬
iGoogle 的小工具（Gadgets），以 AJAX 技術，容許用戶拖放（Drag and Drop）所需政府資訊和服務，隨意擺放於個人版面之上，為增強介面的人性化，當然也容許用戶選擇橫幅、顏色和語言。總之，設計及介面使用要易用和不說自明，更必須有足夠的後援系統，政府各部門也要投入適當資源配合，各部門的服務保安分級和存取權限都要進行標準化。
兩年前我們已指出利用互聯網平台及 Web 2.0 技術，改善政府與市民的關係和管治效率，提高施政的透明度，才是新一代電子政務的核心理念，但技術只不過是工具，開放思維、放膽溝通更重要。我們熱切期待 MyGovHK 出台，也希望這個人化平台可繼續得到政府重視，支援持續發展。
「終極醜陋政府網站博覽」
http://ow.ly/104pB政府資訊科技總監網誌
http://hkgcio.blogspot.com《電子政府與良好管治》報告書
http://tinyurl.com/yhr69wy
聽不到的說話
財政司司長今年
財政預算案的題目為「穩固復蘇、發展經濟、關愛社會」的財政預算案，多年前起筆者已經不再對這些官樣文章有期望，近年預算案只重提現有政策，缺乏新意。
正值政府口講推動創新科技和創意產業，實在諷刺。如果財政預算案是一家企業的財務預算和商業計劃書，相信股東也會問，新發展方向在哪裏，為甚麼不投資研究開發新產品？
財爺說：「創新和科技應用，是為產品和服務增值最有效的方法。」但創新科技本身就是產業，也是種態度，政府十多年來也未弄清楚。
與其批評那些如資助專利申請由10萬增至15萬元是小恩惠，不如問為甚麼1999年撥款50億元的創新及科技基金，可以十多年仍長用長有，相反落實科學園第三期發展計劃（筆者也支持及認同有必要的）就可一口氣花49億元，政府的花錢哲學是甚麼就清楚得很了。
總之，小恩小惠無補大政策之空洞。預算案演辭結語為政府的保守政策辯護，雖然指出，社會上有對香港經濟發展模式造成貧窮和社會流動問題作討論，但司長卻把這些理性討論反思一句貶為「大幅財富轉移」，不理社會矛盾加深，漠視社會發展價值觀改變，堅持奉行「行之有效的經濟運作模式」。
司長自勉說「在平衡社會不同價值矛盾時，不可偏聽」，但他真的聽到嗎？
刋載於《蘋果日報》2010年2月27日
阿凡達之父：許敗不許怕
「…創意是一種態度，創新也要有無比的堅持，當然，環境要容許這種輕狂，更要接受，甚至鼓勵失敗。」
相信大家至今已經觀看過
《阿凡達》這部電影了。看過的朋友，大多都會認為是個難忘的體驗，也想一看再看，
3D 不夠還想排隊數月後再看
IMAX 版。原來電影是可以這樣的，而這樣的電影，大概不用太懼怕甚麼盜錄了。
原來導演占士金馬倫早在電影推出前
15 年，不是
15 個月，是
15 年，已經撰寫了《阿凡達》的基本故事，但結果項目一拖再拖，是因為金馬倫覺得技術未夠成熟，未能把他想像的表達於銀幕上，結果
12 年後才開始構建這虛擬世界，歷時
3 年多完成。在發行的影片格式上，除了傳統平面格式，就是
3D 也發行了
RealD、
Dolby、
XpanD 和
IMAX 四種格式，還有
4-D film！除了說是「瘋狂」之外，實難以形容！結果在製作就花了
3 億美元，差不多等於香港政府的創新科技基金（
50 億港元）的一半。
《阿凡達》的成功當然不止這些技術上的創新，還有在故事、製作、設計、演出等每一個環節。但有些人以為這只是部特技片，像有內地電影製作者揚言可以做到《阿凡達》的特技，還可以很便宜，只令人哭笑不得。因為電影原來對他們不是藝術也不是技術的表達，只是工廠生產線的其中一件產品，最緊要平，好彩的話最多再加點靚正，結果只能環保地循環生產《花田囍事》第
N 集。
最近，金馬倫在著名的
TED 論壇中解釋，原來對海洋探索的興趣才是他的動力，也是他之前製作《鐵達尼號》的原因，因為「自然的幻想力，相比人類的幻想力，是無窮無盡的」。在最後全情投入製作《阿凡達》的數年間，金馬倫也不停提醒自己，「好奇心是一個人擁有最有力量的東西，千萬不要自己限制自己，因為人家自然會這樣做…藝術和探索中必須容許失敗，因為成功是需要『明明沒有理由，但仍然堅信』（
Leap of Faith）的信念。」他還說，無論你在做甚麼，失敗是可容許的，但恐懼不是（
Failure is an option, but fear is not.）。
從成功改變世界的偉人身上，我們就是要學習這些毋懼一切的態度。上周筆者與一群年青人在「青年高峰會
2010」的會前分題研討會分享有關創新科技的機遇，我們也談到究竟甚麼是創新？甚麼是創意？創新是可以用政策設計的嗎？創意是可以在辦公室尋找出來的嗎？從金馬倫的例子可見，創意是一種態度，創新也要有無比的堅持。當然，環境要容許這種輕狂，更要接受，甚至鼓勵失敗。失敗乃成功之母是真的，不是安慰人的話。
刊載於
《Hitech》 2010年2月25日
對2010-2011財政預算案的回應
對2010-2011財政預算案的回應
今早財政司司長宣讀了他任內第三份，題為「穩固復蘇 發展經濟 關愛社會」的
財政預算案， 內容可說是平實無華，可惜缺乏前瞻性及對香港的未來作出投資，有如一家唯有守業，久缺新發展方向和研究開發的企業財務預算。
這些年來，我們對財政預算案支援資訊科技發展已沒多大期望，今年預算案中提及發展檢測及認證、促進創新科技和鼓勵創意創新的部份，完全沒有新的驚喜，除了如意料中落實科學園第三期發展計劃(49億元)，大部分 只屬重提現有政策，或有資助專利申請由十萬增至十五萬，這些小優惠無助大政策空洞的事實。
值得注意的，是資訊科技總監辦公室的預算比往年減少了一成 (去年預算則有18.2%增長)，這減少出現於「僱用服務及專業費用」一項，令人擔憂 對業界的直接負面影響，在這方面我們將與當局跟進。
較 為好的消息，是政府終於回應了各界爭取多年，為有需要學生提供上網費一事終於落實(預留5億元)，但為有中小學生的綜援及合資格領取學生資助家庭提供最多 一千三百元的措施，只限2010學年；長遠政府希望透過非牟利機構提供廉價上網選擇，我們擔心這做法不單經濟成效成疑，也可能引入一種有限制性的「次等」 上網服務，無助甚至助長數碼鴻溝。在這方面我們會聯同業界積極監察。
另外，身為醫院管理局成員，我莫乃光歡迎政府對公共醫療增加資源(12.4億元)，加強在藥物方面及對癌病等病友的服務，尤期在藥物品質保證方面，我們也期 望資訊科技可在改善服務水平繼續發揮效益。
我們公共專業聯盟提交政府的預算案建議中，包括「理順土地供應，締造有利營商環境」，要求「恢復定期賣地，每季進行一次公開賣地，加上現時的勾地表制 度，形成一個兼具規律性及靈活性的雙軌賣地制度」，但政府只肯把勾地表中數幅市區住宅用地，若不被勾出，會在未來兩年拍賣或招標，及與港鐵及市建局「研 究」增加中小型住宅供應，既不治標也不治本，土地供應及樓價問題持續，令人失望。
面對社會矛盾加深，愈來愈多人質疑香港的經濟發展價值 觀，財政司司長卻把這些重要的反思貶稱為「大幅財富轉移」，結論又是不會改變「行之有效的經濟運作模式」。我們社會在區域快速發展、國際經濟秩序重整的環 境下，還可以浪費多少時間？把些少退稅和寬免差餉轉移市民視線，不為香港未來發展規劃投資，還可以拖多久？
Response to 2010-2011 Financial Budget
The Financial Secretary presented his third Budget speech this morning, with three objectives being recovery, developing our economy, and building a caring society. The Budget may be practical, but it lacks vision and investment for Hong Kong's future. It would be akin to a company that lacks new development direction and does not invest in R&D.
Over the years, we are used to no longer having much expectation for the Government Budget in the way of support for IT. This year, there were no surprise, just restating existing policies, where testing and certification, innovation and technology, and creative industries were mentioned. The confirmation for the third phase development of the Science Park to go ahead ($4.9B) is somewhat expected. Other initiatives like increasing the cap for patent application subsidies from $100K to $150K are minor in face of the lack of broad policy direction.
But it is alarming to note a decrease of 10% in the budget of the Office of the Government Chief Information Officer (compared to an increase of 18.2% last year) due to a drop in the allocation for outsourcing and professional services. This may lead to direct negative impact to our IT sector, and we will follow up on this matter.
A better news is that Government has finally responded to the demand for providing Internet access fees to needy students ($500M). But the measure to provide those families with students and falling under the CSSA or student subsidy schemes with $1,300 a year will last for only the current school year. In the longer term, Government will look toward a non-profit organization to provide low-cost Internet access service. We concerned about the economic viability of this idea, and do not want to see an introduction of a “second-class” service with access limits, one that will actually deepen not alleviate the digital divide. This is an area We will continue to monitor with our industry.
As a member of the Hospital Authority, We welcome the Government's injecting more resources into public medical services ($1.24B), especially for the areas of drugs and support for patients such as those with cancer. We also expect that IT will play a key role in the improvement of service quality for drug quality assurance.
In the Budget Proposal Submission by the Professional Commons, we hope the Government would rationalize land supply to create a better business environment, by resuming regular land sales on a quarterly basis, alongside with the land application list system to create a stable and flexible dual-track land sales system. But the Government has only promised to allocate a few pieces of urban residential land for tender or auction in the coming two years, if they were not applied for, and discuss with MTR and URA to increase the supply for small and medium sized apartments. This is grossly insufficient and will only exasperate our land price problem.
In face of growing social conflicts and doubts about Hong Kong's value system of economic development, all that the Financial Secretary could say was to demise such thoughts as “large-scale redistribution of wealth,” and quickly conclude that we should stick with our “well-established mode of economic operation.” When we are confronted with rapid regional development and a global new economic order, how much more time can we waste? How much longer can our Government delay planning and investing in Hong Kong's future, simply by using small favors like tax rebates and waiver of government rates to divert citizens' attention?
